In the new “Pharmerging Shake-Up” report, IMS Health focuses on 17 high-growth emerging markets (with per capita GDP < US$ 25’000). Together, these countries already contributed 37% of global pharma growth in 2009. This proportion is predicted to increase to 48% by 2013.
- Tier 1 : China
exp. pharma market growth 2008-13: US$ 40+ billion - Tier 2: Brazil, Russia, India
exp. pharma market growth 2008-13: US$ 5-15 billion each - Tier 3: Venezuela, Poland, Argentina, Turkey, Mexico, Vietnam, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Romania, Egypt, Pakistan, Ukraine
exp. pharma market growth 2008-13: US$ 1-5 billion each
While these 17 emerging markets already accounted for 17% of the world pharma market in 2009, the world’s top 15 pharma manufacturer’s derived just 9.4% of their 2009 sales from them. China, today the 5th largest market in the world (behind France and Germany), is expected to jump to 3rd place by 2011 (topped only by the U.S. and Japan).
By and large, European pharma companies have done better in these new markets than their US-based competitors. Ahead of the pack is Bayer-Schering, deriving over 20% of their 2009 sales from the pharmerging markets (esp. strong in China). Sanofi-Aventis (e.g. Latin America) and Novartis (e.g. China, Russia) also outperformed their industry peers in these geographies.
The growth in the “pharmerging markets” is clearly driven by trends like rising GDP, better access to healthcare and improving patent and regulatory situations. However, these countries also pose their own challenges, including the dominance of local companies and brands, the high proportion of generics and the absence of adequate health insurance for many patients. In addition, some of these countries are beginning to respond to rising healthcare costs with tighter regulations, including price controls. Finally, each of these 17 markets presents a unique environment in terms of its population, healthcare infrastructure and competitive landscape.
Source: “Pharmerging Shake-Up”, IMS Health (March 2010)
